Monday, April 14, 2008

In Surprise, Retail Sales Edged Higher in March

U.S. retail sales took a surprising turn upward during March, a promising sign for the economy given the punishment consumers have absorbed. Retail sales increased by 0.2%, the Commerce Department said.

Retail sales increased by 0.2%, the Commerce Department said Monday. Sales went down a revised 0.4% in February. Sales that month were originally seen 0.6% lower.

Excluding sales of gasoline stations, which were helped by high energy prices, retail sales didn't budge in March.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 0.1% decrease in overall March retail sales. The actual, 0.2% increase could be seen as bright news, considering many analysts argue the U.S. has gone into recession, which is defined as two straight quarters of economic decline. The sales report is a key indicator of U.S. consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic activity in the U.S. The Commerce Department next week releases its first estimate of first-quarter GDP, which will confirm whether the economy fell and began what could turn into recession.


GDP rose in the fourth quarter of 2007, but the crawling 0.6% increase was far below the galloping 4.9% pace in the third quarter. The economy is fighting higher food prices, surging energy costs, job losses, and a credit crunch. Financial market turmoil has sent stock prices down and the housing slump lowered the values of homes.

The retail sector data Monday showed U.S. sales of automobiles and parts rose by 0.2% in March. February sales had fallen 1.2%. Sales of all other retailers excluding auto and parts dealers increased in March by 0.1%; economists expected a 0.1% increase. Ex-auto sales in February had gone 0.1% lower, revised from a previously estimated 0.2% decrease.

March gasoline station sales increased by 1.1%. Gas sales fell 0.5% in February. Stripping away sales at gas stations, demand at all other retailers was flat in March.

Excluding gas and auto sectors, demand at other retailers last month was flat. Sales decreased 1.6% at building material and garden supplies dealers; 0.3% at furniture store sales; 0.4% at electronics and appliance stores; 0.5% at clothing stores; 0.1% at health and personal care stores; and 0.6% at general merchandise stores. Sales increased 0.4% at food and beverage stores; 0.3% at eating and drinking places; 2.1% at mail order and Internet retailers; and 1.4% at sporting goods, hobby and book stores.

Business Inventories Rise

In a separate reading Monday, U.S. business inventories grew again in February, while demand plunged -- a sign companies are getting stuck with unsold goods on their shelves as the economy sours.

Inventories increased by 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted $1.468 trillion, the Commerce Department said Monday. Inventories in January rose a revised 0.9%; originally, January stocks were seen up 0.8%.

Wall Street was looking for stockpiles to move 0.6% higher during February.

Business sales decreased by 1.1% to $1.143 trillion in February. Sales rose 1.3% in January; originally, January sales were seen 1.5% higher. The 1.1% drop was the largest since a matching decline in January 2007.

The inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.28 in February from 1.26 in January, Commerce said. The gauge indicates how well firms are matching supply with demand. It measures how long in months a firm could sell all current inventory. The 1.28 ratio was the largest since 1.30 in February 2007.

Year over year, inventories grew by 5.2% since February 2007; sales climbed 6.7%.

February manufacturing sector stockpiles of goods increased 0.5% after rising 1.3% in January. U.S. wholesalers' inventories rose 1.1% after increasing 1.3% in January.

Retailers' stocks of goods increased by 0.2% after rising 0.3% in January. Auto dealer inventories climbed 0.4% after increasing in January at the same rate. Excluding the auto component, other retail stocks inched 0.1% higher in February after rising 0.2% in January. February inventories rose by 0.2% at food and beverage stores; 0.4% at building materials, garden equipment and supplies stores; and 0.2% at general merchandise stores. Inventories fell 0.3% at furniture outlets and 0.4% at clothing stores.



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